Naseem Taleb And Peter Brandt Both Say Crypto Ice Age May Prolong. Crypto winter may not be seasonal as implied in its journalistic expression.
When people say “winter,” it implies a passing short season followed by lots of good stuff. But when it’s about cryptocurrencies, “crypto winter” may have a whole new meaning.
For starters, there’s already a kind of history already set by this phenomenon. There was a crypto winter back in 2018/2019. While actual winters last a few months, this one lasted more than a year. It was about the market shifts for digital assets as opposed to weather shifts in the real world.
This is, perhaps, the major points that Naseem Nicholas Taleb and Peter Brandt are trying to make when they talk about the current hard times and the immediate future of the crypto space.
What Naseem Says
Naseem is a huge fan of Mathematics, Philosophy, and real-life probabilities and author of well-known book “The Black Swan”.
According to him, crypto winter isn’t exactly what some people may think of it. As mentioned earlier, winter is an abstract expression that refers to seasons in a real-world setting. In the digital market, it may mean something entirely different. It may not be transitory as people expect. It may be a prolonged period of market downturns – much like the Ice Age.
For this reason, Naseem has a rather pessimistic view of the coming crypto winter. He thinks of it as the ultimate period that, much like the Ice Age, will result in the “extinction” of various finance-related entities linked to the crypto space.
“The journalistic expression “Crypto Winter” is highly deceiving; it implies seasonality and, perhaps worse, a reversion to some trend. No, your winter may not be transitory, & what you call winter may degrade into a permanent & inescapable ice age fraught with extinctions.”
The troubles facing the likes of Celsius, 3AC, Voyager, Babel, CoinFLEX, Coincodex, and others are a point to this fact. These CeFi platforms have come an inch away from total liquidation due to the current market downturns. They have resorted to extreme measures to save themselves, including halting all deposits and withdrawals. There are reports that Celsius is now in the process of being bailed out or bought out by another entity.
Peter Brandt’s Opinion
According to Peter Brandt, who happens to be a veteran trader with lots of experience in the market, the current hardships faced by various crypto entities may be just the tip of the iceberg. There’s bound to be a bigger issue underlying the initial problem. To prove this point, Peter shared a tweet reporting that Voyager has put a withdrawal limit.
Voyager is one of the platforms affected by the market crash. It’s rumored that 3AC holds a huge debt borrowed from Voyager and is contemplating defaulting on the payment.
“Lots of bank holidays forthcoming in crypto/nft space This is like an iceberg — the real danger is with the iceberg below the water line.”
Lots of bank holidays forthcoming in crypto/nft space
This is like an iceberg — the real danger is with the iceberg below the water line https://t.co/XModk4ctAh
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) June 23, 2022